Yavuz IŞIK
THBB Yönetim Kurulu Başkanı
President
The economy of Turkey still keeps on despite the pandemic. Nevertheless, this performance must not be expected to continue in the same way following the elimination of the impact of low interest and currency rates. We will inevitably encounter a significant slowdown in the economic activity in particular at the beginning of 2021. Construction is the first sector to be affected by high interests. The construction sector that navigated a course in parallel with the growth that took place in the overall economy in the third quarter will grow in the last quarter of this year as well. The Ready Mixed Concrete Index also shows that the construction continues its way in the last quarter. However, the sector is expected to slow down because of the impact of the contracting domestic demand, high interests, and geopolitical risks in 2021.
The wind that started as of June this year has not stopped yet for the construction sector, allowing the sector to heave its sails. While it is observed that this impact declined in the last quarter of the year, the construction sector ended the year on the positive side.
The construction sector appears as a sector with a much more vulnerability than other sectors. Because of its sensitivity to the interest rates, it is affected by macro variables much faster than other sectors and the duration of that effect is longer compared to other sectors. Particularly in the forthcoming period in which the interest level will increase, the interest in housing demand will decrease. On the other hand, the housing stock of our country situated in an earthquake zone must be renewed and our government is expected to implement an active policy in this process in the forthcoming period. The construction sector will play a key role in the solution of the interruption in employment. As the construction sector contracted for 8 quarters prior to the pandemic, it presently has a very significant employment potential. To be able to use this potential, the construction sector must not be left to act on its own. It is because we are able to keep track of the slowdown in the mobility that started in June of this year, from the figures of housing sales. The figures of housing sales that exceeded 200 thousand in June declined to around 100 thousand in December. Mortgaged housing sales fell to the figures present in the beginning of the pandemic. The signs in question must be read carefully.