Yavuz IŞIK
THBB Yönetim Kurulu Başkanı
President
We know that there were serious speculative currency attacks in the market before March 31. The expectation was that the foreign exchange rate would significantly increase following the election. The central bank raised its indicative interest rate by 5 points for a strong message. At the point we have reached today, the CBRT's gross reserves increased by $5,4 billion in mid-July and reached a new historical high of $153,8 billion. Reserves, excluding swaps, reached the peak of the last four years.
Following the rise in interest rates and other tightening policies, it appears that the cooling in the economy started in July. The data at the beginning of July confirms this. The decline in credit card expenditures compared to the previous month is an indication of the slowdown on the consumption side. It can be said that with the current interest rate, the economy will further slow down in the rest of the year, but despite this, it does not seem possible for the CBRT to reach the target inflation rate at the end of the year. In this case, our country will start 2025 at a distance from the 14% target. Therefore, a serious relaxation in the interest rate policy should not be expected by the economic management in 2025. In the current situation, the 2 percent limit imposed on credit growth will not increase.